FREE 05/09 MLB Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 12-game MLB slate offers several strong pitching matchups with a few high-scoring games to target. The Padres-Rockies game stands out with an 11.5 total at Coors Field, making it a prime stacking spot despite some wind blowing right to left. Other notable totals include the Yankees-Oakland game at 11 runs and Baltimore-Los Angeles at 10, both featuring favorable hitting conditions. Domed stadiums in Houston, Seattle, and Arizona should neutralize weather concerns and provide consistent environments for hitters.

Weather could play a role in Tampa Bay, New York, and Minneapolis where rain chances range from 28% to 53%, raising the possibility of delays or rainouts that might affect lineups or game flow. Kansas City looks solid with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing in, which could suppress offense despite a 9-run total against Boston. Overall, keep an eye on weather updates for those key games while focusing on matchups with clear conditions and higher totals for DFS leverage tonight.

Top Stacks

NYY 5-Man ($24,200)

Trent Grisham, Aaron Judge, Ben Rice, Paul Goldschmidt, Cody Bellinger

The NYY stack offers solid value at 2.07 points per $1000 with a total salary of $24,200, fitting well within budget constraints for MLB DFS lineups. The average ownership is moderate at 9.4%, paired with an optimal lineup rate of 8.0%, indicating this stack is neither overly popular nor underutilized, providing a balanced leverage opportunity. The game total of 11.0 suggests a favorable offensive environment, and the clear weather conditions with mild wind and no precipitation support consistent hitting performance. Although the player list includes notable power threats like Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger, the inclusion of less typical Yankees such as Trent Grisham and Ben Rice could provide differentiation while maintaining upside in a high-scoring game context.

SD 5-Man ($28,000)

Fernando Tatis Jr., Luis Arraez, Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, Xander Bogaerts

The SD stack offers solid value at 1.94 points per $1000 with a total salary of $28,000, fitting well within budget constraints for MLB DFS lineups. With an average ownership of 11.8% and an optimal lineup rate of 7.2%, the stack presents a moderately leveraged play that can differentiate lineups while maintaining reasonable exposure. The game total sits at 11.5, indicating a favorable offensive environment, especially given the partly cloudy conditions, mild 71°F temperature, low 8% precipitation risk, and manageable 7 MPH wind in Denver—factors that typically support good hitting conditions. This stack’s inclusion of high-upside bats like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado against what is likely a favorable pitching matchup enhances its upside potential without excessive ownership risk.

LAA 5-Man ($18,400)

Zach Neto, Nolan Schanuel, Jorge Soler, Taylor Ward, Logan O’Hoppe

The LAA stack offers strong value at 2.29 points per $1000 on a total salary of $18,400, making it an efficient use of salary in MLB DFS. With an average ownership of just 5.7% and an optimal lineup rate of 7.0%, this stack presents a moderately low ownership leverage play with a slightly higher optimal exposure, suggesting it is a viable contrarian option that many optimizers are targeting but not heavily owned by the field. The game total is set at a solid 10.0 runs, indicating good scoring potential, while clear weather conditions with mild 86° temperatures and a slight 7 MPH wind blowing out in Anaheim favor offensive output. Overall, this stack combines favorable environmental factors and underappreciated ownership with solid value metrics for DFS lineups.

SP Plays

Top Play: Aaron Nola ($8,300)

Aaron Nola comes in with solid recent form, posting multiple quality starts and showing good strikeout ability with 8 Ks over six scoreless innings in his last outing. He faces Cleveland on the road, a team that has a middle-of-the-pack offense but can be vulnerable to right-handed pitching, especially in a pitcher-friendly ballpark like Progressive Field. Nola’s consistent ability to limit runs while generating ground balls and whiffs makes him a strong option for steady fantasy production.

At $8,300, Nola offers strong value with a 2.03x value projection and ranks second overall for GPPs, appearing in nearly 22% of optimal lineups. His ownership is elevated at 29%, reflecting confidence across the player pool, but this chalk appears justified given his floor and ceiling combination. Expect him to pitch deep into the game with strikeout upside and controlled run environment supporting his DFS appeal tonight.

Honorable Mentions

• Gavin Williams ($6,800)
• Kevin Gausman ($9,000)

C Plays

Top Play: Logan O’Hoppe ($3,900)

Logan O’Hoppe is a strong value play at catcher tonight against Baltimore, priced at just $3,900. He’s hitting .294 with a .569 slugging percentage this season and has shown power upside with nine homers in 29 games. Batting fifth in the Angels’ lineup gives him solid RBI opportunities in what should be a competitive game environment. The Orioles’ pitching staff has struggled to contain right-handed power bats, which enhances O’Hoppe’s upside.

His recent stretch of production includes a .450 average over the last six games with multiple extra-base hits, supporting his DFS viability. Ownership is moderate at around 5%, slightly above the field average, reflecting recognition of his value without making him overly chalky. Given his combination of price, lineup spot, and matchup, O’Hoppe offers an appealing mix of floor and ceiling for tournaments.

Honorable Mentions

• Will Smith ($4,100)
• William Contreras ($4,300)

1B Plays

Top Play: Eric Wagaman ($3,200)

Eric Wagaman offers strong value at just $3,200 with a 3rd spot in the Marlins’ lineup, ensuring solid plate appearances. He’s a right-handed hitter facing the White Sox, who have shown some vulnerability to righties this season. Despite a recent cold streak, his overall profile and lineup position make him a viable tournament option, especially given his 2.45x value and moderate ownership around 6.6%.

While Wagaman’s recent production has been inconsistent, the matchup and batting order slot provide enough upside for GPP consideration. His presence in nearly 10% of optimal lineups signals that advanced models see potential here, so he can serve as a low-cost piece to balance out salary while maintaining exposure to Miami’s offense in what should be a competitive game environment.

Honorable Mentions

• Yandy Diaz ($3,800)
• Miguel Vargas ($2,800)

2B Plays

Top Play: Jake Cronenworth ($4,400)

Jake Cronenworth offers strong value at $4,400 given his recent form and matchup. He’s just back from the injured list and showed good timing in rehab with a homer and multiple walks, indicating he’s ready to contribute. Batting sixth for the Padres in Coors Field, a hitter-friendly park known for boosting offensive numbers, gives him upside even without a prime lineup spot. As a left-handed batter, he faces a favorable environment against the right-handed Rockies pitching staff that has struggled to contain lefties this season.

Ownership is elevated at 11.1%, which reflects his low salary combined with decent upside in a high-scoring game environment. The Padres have an implied team total around 4.5 runs tonight, which supports run-scoring opportunities throughout their lineup. While Cronenworth isn’t guaranteed maximum plate appearances batting sixth, his ability to get on base and occasional power make him a solid mid-tier option who can help differentiate lineups without sacrificing floor or upside.

Honorable Mentions

• Jackson Holliday ($3,600)
• Miguel Rojas ($2,300)

3B Plays

Top Play: Jonathan India ($3,200)

Jonathan India offers strong value at just $3,200 while batting leadoff for Kansas City against Boston. He’s posted a solid .400 average with some pop recently, including his first homer of the season, and has multiple multi-hit games in the last week. The Royals’ implied run total is modest, but India’s top-of-the-order role maximizes plate appearances, which is crucial for accumulating fantasy points at this price.

His ownership sits near field average around 6%, which feels appropriate given his upside and salary. Facing a right-handed pitcher in a neutral park gives India a slight edge as a righty hitter with some power potential. At this price point and lineup spot, he provides an affordable way to fill out lineups with multi-category upside without sacrificing floor or ceiling.

Honorable Mentions

• Miguel Rojas ($2,300)
• Manny Machado ($5,700)

SS Plays

Top Play: Gunnar Henderson ($5,000)

Gunnar Henderson slots into the Orioles’ lineup in the 2-hole, giving him plenty of plate appearances in a favorable matchup at Angel Stadium. As a left-handed hitter facing a typically neutral to pitcher-friendly park, his power upside remains solid given his recent ability to consistently find the barrel. He’s hitting .316 over his last five games with three homers on the season, showing he can contribute both average and pop. The Orioles’ implied team total is moderate, but Henderson’s contact skills and lineup position offer steady DFS floor.

At $5,000, Henderson provides strong value with a 2.1x salary multiplier and appears in 12% of optimal lineups despite projected ownership near 14%. The slightly elevated ownership reflects confidence in his role and recent form but doesn’t feel overly chalky given his ceiling and consistent production. He’s a reliable tournament option for those looking to balance salary while securing exposure to one of Baltimore’s best hitters in a lineup that should generate enough opportunities for counting stats.

Honorable Mentions

• Willy Adames ($3,900)
• Zach Neto ($4,700)

OF Plays

Top Play: Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6,500)

Fernando Tatis Jr. draws a tough but intriguing matchup at Coors Field, a ballpark that boosts both power and run scoring. Batting leadoff for the Padres gives him plenty of plate appearances in what should be a high-scoring game environment, as Colorado’s implied team total sits near 5 runs. Tatis is hitting .342 with a 1.012 OPS on the season, showing strong all-around production despite a recent quiet stretch against the Yankees.

His ownership around 15.6% aligns closely with his optimal usage (15.4%), reflecting how DFS players view his combination of speed and power upside here. While Coors can inflate counting stats, it also brings more risk for strikeouts and weaker contact, so the chalk seems justified but not overwhelming at this salary point. Given his lineup spot and overall profile, Tatis offers solid value as a core tournament play in this slate’s premium run environment.

Honorable Mentions

• Aaron Judge ($6,400)
• Trent Grisham ($4,500)

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