FREE 05/10 UFC Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

UFC 315 features 24 fighters with an average salary near $8,100, presenting a balanced field for DFS roster construction. Seven fighters project as highly owned chalk at 30% or more, which tightens leverage opportunities but also signals reliable core options. Notably, four strong value plays—candidates to reach 8x value or better—offer critical salary relief and upside in matchups like Jose Aldo versus Aiemann Zahabi and Benoit Saint Denis against Kyle Prepolec. The card’s top-end pricing reflects the presence of dominant champions like Belal Muhammad and Valentina Shevchenko, both priced in ranges that require careful consideration given their styles and expected scoring ceilings.

From a strategy perspective, look for control-heavy fighters such as Muhammad who can rack up takedowns and control time, as well as volume strikers like Jack Della Maddalena and Manon Fiorot who thrive in high-output stand-up battles. The Silva-Grasso bout offers a speed-and-power contrast that could shape scoring around significant strikes rather than grappling stats. With several tightly priced fighters clustered around key ownership tiers, balancing exposure between proven champions and emerging values will be crucial this Saturday. Let’s break down our top plays for this slate.

Premium Tier ($9,000-$10,000)

Top Play: Benoit Saint Denis (-1500) ($9,700)

Benoit Saint Denis offers a compelling DFS profile despite recent setbacks, thanks to his versatile striking and solid grappling base. His ability to accumulate volume strikes while mixing in takedown attempts creates multiple scoring avenues, which boosts his floor even if the finish doesn’t come. The late opponent switch to Kyle Prepolec—a regional-level fighter coming off a hiatus—presents an ideal bounce-back scenario where Saint Denis can impose his pace and control the fight narrative. At $9,700, he fits well into high-end builds with a strong chance for steady points through both damage and control metrics.

While ownership is elevated at over 60%, this reflects his clear favorite status (-1500 odds) and favorable matchup dynamics rather than oversaturation risk. Saint Denis’s scoring upside stems from his balanced style: he can pile up significant strikes while maintaining positional dominance on the mat. Given Prepolec’s limited UFC experience in recent years, expect Saint Denis to leverage pressure and aggression effectively, which makes him a reliable anchor or core pick for tournaments targeting consistency alongside upside.

Other Premium Options

• Navajo Stirling ($9,100, Own: 35.0%, Odds: -275)
• Jasmine Jasudavicius ($9,200, Own: 27.5%, Odds: -400)

Mid-Range Tier ($8,000-$8,999)

Top Play 1: Belal Muhammad (-198) ($8,700)

Belal Muhammad’s grinding wrestling and relentless pace continue to make him a reliable DFS option, especially at his $8,700 salary. He consistently racks up control time and top position, which translates into steady scoring through takedown points and ground strikes. While his finishing upside isn’t elite, his ability to dictate where the fight goes creates a high floor that’s valuable in tournaments. With solid odds and ownership near field average, Muhammad offers dependable output without excessive chalk risk.

Despite recent injury setbacks, Muhammad’s upcoming title defense against a tough opponent with strong takedown defense underscores the durability and adaptability that underpin his game. His improved striking complements his wrestling base, allowing him to accumulate points even when opponents neutralize one aspect of his style. This balanced approach positions him well for DFS lineups seeking consistency with moderate upside in a competitive welterweight division.

Top Play 2: Marc-Andre Barriault (-175) ($8,400)

Marc-Andre Barriault’s balanced striking and grappling make him a solid DFS option at $8,400, especially given his ability to accumulate points through both control time and volume striking. While he’s coming off a three-fight skid, Barriault’s toughness and willingness to engage suggest a reliable floor. Facing Bruno Silva in a catchweight bout where Silva missed weight could tilt the physical advantage toward Barriault, who made weight and stands to capitalize on a potentially slower opponent adjusting to the heavier limit.

His moderate ownership near field average aligns well with his tournament rank, offering leverage without excessive chalk. Barriault’s path to upside comes from sustained pressure and grinding out rounds; he may not be a big finisher but consistently racks up significant strikes and control time. This matchup fits his style, making him worth considering as a steady point producer with some upside if he can impose his pace against Silva.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Bekzat Almakhan ($8,600, Own: 20.9%, Odds: -250)
• Natalia Silva ($8,800, Own: 18.3%, Odds: -110)

Value Tier ($7,000-$7,999)

Top Play: JeongYeong Lee (+135) ($7,900)

JeongYeong Lee’s aggressive striking and forward pressure create multiple avenues for DFS scoring, particularly through volume and potential damage bonuses. Despite a recent TKO loss, he tends to push pace early, which can lead to significant strike accumulation and control time. His matchup shift to Daniel Santos, a fighter with less recent activity, could favor Lee’s more active style and willingness to engage on the feet. At $7,900, his salary reflects a solid mid-tier option with upside if he can capitalize on finishing opportunities.

Lee’s moderate ownership near 34% makes him an appealing pivot off chalk featherweights who often come at higher prices with less clear paths to points. While his durability has been questioned after the last outing, his ability to pressure opponents and generate volume gives him a reliable floor in tournaments. Expect Lee to look for decisive moments early; if successful, that could push his ceiling well above salary expectations on this UFC 315 card.

Other Value Options

• Jessica Andrade ($7,000, Own: 20.4%, Odds: +330)
• Valentina Shevchenko ($7,700, Own: 38.6%, Odds: +100)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Fighter Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!