FREE 05/09 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s two-game slate offers a straightforward setup with clear spots to target. The first game tips off at 7:30 PM ET between Cleveland and Indiana, carrying a solid total of 230.5, while the later matchup at 10:00 PM ET features Oklahoma City at Denver with the highest total on the slate at 232.0. Both games have pace and scoring potential that should translate well for DFS purposes.

With only two games to work with, every piece of value and leverage matters more than usual. The high totals suggest both contests could produce plenty of fantasy points, especially from players who handle the ball or take a lot of shots. It’s a condensed slate where focusing on key matchups and player usage will be critical to separating your lineups from the field.

Game Environment Analysis

CLE @ IND (O/U: 230.5, Spread: 5.0)

• Pace: CLE (10th) vs IND (8th)
• Off Eff: CLE (1st) 🔥 vs IND (6th)
• Def Eff: CLE (7th) vs IND (13th)

OKC @ DEN (O/U: 232.0, Spread: 6.0)

• Pace: OKC (6th) vs DEN (12th)
• Off Eff: OKC (3rd) 🔥 vs DEN (4th)
• Def Eff: OKC (1st) vs DEN (22nd)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Jamal Murray ($6,800)

Jamal Murray draws a solid spot against OKC, a team that’s struggled to contain guards this postseason. His recent minutes have been heavy, projecting around 42 minutes again, which supports his high floor. Over the last five games, Murray has averaged about 28 DK points with a strong mix of scoring and peripherals, including rebounds and assists. His 35% boom rate and 5.8x value at $6,800 make him one of the safer plays on this slate given the volume and usage he commands.

Ownership is high at nearly 60%, but that looks justified considering Murray’s role as Denver’s primary offensive option in this series. The Nuggets rely on him heavily to create shots and space, especially with Jokic drawing attention inside. With optimal lineups featuring him over 40% of the time, fading Murray would mean passing on one of the best combination plays in a game with enough pace and scoring upside to support his projections.

More PG Plays:

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($9,900)
• Russell Westbrook ($5,100)

SG - Aaron Nesmith ($5,300)

Aaron Nesmith is drawing heavy ownership at $5,300 for good reason. He’s been consistently productive throughout the playoffs, averaging over 20 points and contributing across the board with rebounds, steals, and blocks. His recent lines include a 40 DK point game on 8-13 shooting from the field and 5-8 from deep in a tight series against Cleveland. Nesmith’s role is locked in for around 32 minutes, which supports his strong value at 5.3x. The Pacers have a slight edge in this matchup with a close game environment that should keep scoring opportunities high.

The chalk ownership of 52.5% looks justified given Nesmith’s steady output and role stability against a Cleveland team that hasn’t shown an ability to limit his production so far. While he doesn’t have a huge boom rate at just under 18%, he offers a reliable floor with upside thanks to his multi-category contributions. He fits well as a core piece in GPP builds, especially since his price tags him as one of the better values among starting wings tonight.

More SG Plays:

• Donovan Mitchell ($9,500)
• Christian Braun ($5,200)

SF - Jalen Williams ($7,600)

Jalen Williams is coming off a tough shooting night but remains locked in for heavy minutes against Denver, projected around 37.0 minutes. His 1.16 FPPM and 32.4% boom rate show he can hit ceiling games, especially in a matchup where OKC will need him to carry a scoring load. Despite recent cold stretches from deep, Williams’ overall usage and ability to contribute across multiple categories keep his value strong at $7,600, reflected in his impressive 5.7x value mark.

The chalk ownership at 59.3% looks justified given his role and upside in this game environment. The Thunder-Nuggets series has been high-scoring with plenty of pace, which favors Williams’ multi-category upside as a primary playmaker and scorer for OKC. While the ownership is high, his consistent volume and presence in nearly 40% of optimal lineups make him a solid core piece rather than just a chalk pivot. If you’re comfortable riding the popularity, Williams offers reliable floor with meaningful ceiling potential on this slate.

More SF Plays:

• Christian Braun ($5,200)
• Bennedict Mathurin ($3,900)

PF - Aaron Gordon ($5,900)

Aaron Gordon is drawing plenty of attention at $5,900, and rightfully so given his recent stretch. He’s averaging around 39 minutes per game in this series against OKC and has delivered consistently with multiple 20+ point games, including a 43.5 DK point outburst where he also pulled down 14 boards. His role as a secondary scorer and rebounder for Denver keeps his floor solid, while his ability to hit timely threes—like the game-winner in Game 1—gives him upside. The Thunder don’t have a strong interior defense, which should allow Gordon to operate comfortably both inside and on the perimeter.

At 43.5% ownership, Gordon sits near chalk levels but still offers excellent value at over 5.4x value with a boom rate north of 22%. The implied pace and scoring environment remain favorable for Denver, making him a logical core piece in GPPs despite the moderate ownership. He appears in more than a third of optimal lineups, reflecting his reliability without being overly saturated. If you’re looking for a balanced DFS option with upside and steady volume in a high-scoring matchup, Gordon fits that mold well tonight.

More PF Plays:

• Chet Holmgren ($7,000)
• Pascal Siakam ($6,900)

C - Nikola Jokic ($11,000)

Nikola Jokic remains the top DFS option on this slate despite a modest Game 2 showing where he posted 38 DK points in 32 minutes before fouling out. His recent 83.5 DK point explosion in Game 1 proves he can still dominate this OKC defense, which struggles to contain versatile big men. Jokic’s ability to fill the stat sheet across points, rebounds, assists, and defensive stats keeps his floor high. At $11,000 with a 5.9x value and a boom rate above 50%, he’s priced appropriately for the workload Denver needs from him.

The matchup sets up well for a bounce-back effort as OKC ranks poorly against centers in fantasy production, and Jokic is expected to play around 41 minutes with heavy usage. His ownership sits at a reasonable 33%, just above field average, reflecting confidence but leaving room for leverage given his upside ceiling. With optimal lineups including him over half the time, Jokic is a strong foundation piece for GPP builds that require consistent elite production at center.

More C Plays:

• Myles Turner ($6,300)
• Chet Holmgren ($7,000)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!