FREE 09/18 NFL Cheat Sheet: Top TNF DFS Plays

Thursday Night Football kicks off Week 3 with a high-stakes AFC East battle between the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins. This game boasts a juicy 50.0 total, implying plenty of scoring opportunities for DFS purposes, even with Buffalo as a hefty 12-point favorite. With a comfortable 68-degree forecast and minimal 5 mph WSW wind, weather looks like a non-factor, meaning we don’t have to worry about any unexpected environmental dampeners on offensive production. This sets the stage for a potentially high-octane offensive shootout, which is exactly what we want in a Showdown slate.

The key storyline for DFS here revolves around how Miami can keep pace with the Bills’ explosive offense. If the Dolphins can hang around, this game could easily exceed its total, creating a goldmine of fantasy points. However, a Bills blowout could lead to concentrated production from Buffalo’s stars. We’ll need to consider both scenarios when building our lineups, especially when deciding on Captain plays. The wide spread suggests a potential for garbage time production from Miami, but also a high ceiling for Bills’ key players who could be rested late if the game gets out of hand. Let’s dive into the top Captain and Flex plays for Thursday’s showdown slate!

Top Captain Plays

Josh Allen ($18,600)

Josh Allen (CPT $18,600) faces a high-octane matchup against the Dolphins where his dual-threat ability thrives, and his 38.08 DK point projection highlights his immense ceiling. He consistently delivers massive fantasy performances, evident from his four total touchdowns in Week 1, and the Bills’ 36.0 points per game average demonstrates the offensive environment he operates within. His 2.05x value and 40.73% optimal rate as captain underscore his leverage, especially with moderate 11.2% ownership, making him an outstanding choice to maximize scoring potential in this divisional showdown.

Honorable Mention

• De’Von Achane ($16,200)

Top UTIL Plays

1. Tua Tagovailoa ($9,400)

Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for 315 yards and two touchdowns in a tough matchup against the Patriots last week, demonstrating his ability to produce even when the team falls behind. He now faces a critical early-season road matchup against the Bills, where the game script could force him into a high-volume passing role to keep pace. His projected 16.85 DK points at a $9400 salary gives him a strong 1.79x value, positioning him as a top-tier DFS play for this slate.

Tagovailoa’s 41.98% optimal lineup percentage indicates high confidence in his scoring potential, despite a couple of recent less-than-stellar outings. The Dolphins’ 0-2 start puts immense pressure on this Week 3 game, creating a scenario where Tagovailoa will need to air it out, providing ample fantasy opportunities. The high ownership of 37.03% further solidifies his status as a popular and well-regarded option among DFS players.

2. Keon Coleman ($6,800)

Keon Coleman leads the Bills with 14 targets and 138 receiving yards through two games, and he broke out for 112 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. This week he faces a Dolphins defense that has allowed 33 points to each of its first two opponents, setting up a high-scoring environment for the Bills’ passing game.

Buffalo’s implied total of 24.5 points suggests multiple scoring opportunities for Coleman against a vulnerable secondary. His recent volume and red zone usage, combined with the favorable matchup, provide a strong foundation for exceeding his projection and delivering a top-tier DFS performance.

Honorable Mentions

• Tanner Conner ($800)

Bargain Bin

Malik Washington ($3,200)

Malik Washington has been cleared for Thursday Night Football, and his $3,200 salary makes him an absolute steal in this matchup against the Bills. Despite a limited practice earlier in the week due to a thumb injury, he’s a full participant and ready to go, fresh off a game where he secured one target for two yards and carried the ball three times for 23 yards, alongside an impressive 122 return yards and a touchdown. This dual-threat ability, combined with his minimal salary, provides a massive floor and ceiling combination, positioning him as a critical piece for optimal lineups.

Washington’s return game prowess and rushing upside add significant fantasy points that aren’t typically priced into a receiver at this salary, and his role as the No. 3 receiver in a potentially high-scoring game against Buffalo gives him multiple avenues to exceed his modest projection. His 34.73% optimal lineup percentage speaks volumes about his potential to unlock higher-priced players, and with his health confirmed, he’s primed to deliver excellent value and outperform expectations.

Honorable Mention

• Ray Davis ($2,600)

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