FREE 09/21 NFL Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Week 3 is here and it’s loaded, providing ample opportunities for roster construction. We’re looking at a few games with elevated totals, notably the Cowboys and Bears at 50.0 and the Broncos and Chargers at 46.0, suggesting potential for significant fantasy output from those games.

Top Stacks

CHI vs DAL ($18,900)

Players: Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze, CeeDee Lamb

This CHI-DAL stack projects 55.8 points with 13.8% ownership and 11.8% optimal rate, offering 2.95 pts/$1K value. Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze show strong correlation, connecting for two touchdowns last week and exhibiting a clear emphasis on Odunze in the new offense. CeeDee Lamb offers significant bring-back upside, having posted back-to-back 100-yard games and facing a Bears defense that just allowed 450 passing yards and three touchdowns, suggesting a high-scoring game script that benefits Dallas’s passing attack.

ARI vs SF ($20,000)

Players: Kyler Murray, Trey McBride, Christian McCaffrey

This ARI/SF stack projects 57.6 points with 12.2% ownership and 13.6% optimal rate, offering 2.88 pts/$1K value. Kyler Murray and Trey McBride demonstrate strong correlation, with McBride being the Cardinals’ leading receiver (6 catches, 78 yards in Week 2; 6 catches, 61 yards in Week 1) and Murray consistently targeting him, even with mixed passing results. Christian McCaffrey offers high upside as a bring-back, having already topped 100 scrimmage yards in both games this season (107 in Week 2, 142 in Week 1) and historically dominating the Cardinals (364 combined yards, 7 TDs in two 2023 meetings), especially if the 49ers play with a lead.

QB Plays

Marcus Mariota ($4,000)

Marcus Mariota has been confirmed as the starter, filling in for an injured Jayden Daniels, and immediately projects as a top DFS option at his $4000 salary. His projection of 18.73 DraftKings points gives him an elite 4.68x value, making him the top-ranked tournament play at quarterback. This value is amplified by his significant dual-threat upside, as evidenced by his previous season’s performance where he completed 34 of 44 passes for 364 yards and four touchdowns, along with 92 rushing yards and another touchdown.

Mariota draws a favorable home matchup against the Raiders, and his confirmed starting role removes any uncertainty that might depress ownership. Despite his strong projection and value, his projected ownership of 9.3% provides significant tournament leverage, especially considering his 10.32% optimal lineup percentage. His ability to contribute with both his arm and legs provides a secure floor for cash games while offering massive ceiling potential for GPPs, making him an exceptionally appealing play at this price point.

Honorable Mentions

• Caleb Williams ($5,600)
• Carson Wentz ($4,000)

RB Plays

Kenneth Walker III ($5,800)

Kenneth Walker III is set for a leading role in Week 3, poised to capitalize on Zach Charbonnet’s likely absence due to a foot injury. This confirmation of his undisputed top running back status removes any ambiguity about his usage and creates a massive opportunity for increased volume. With a projected 20.29 DK points and a 3.5x value at a salary of $5800, Walker offers both a strong floor and significant ceiling potential. His impressive 105 rushing yards and touchdown in Week 2 demonstrate his ability to generate big plays and find the end zone, making him a prime candidate for another high-scoring performance.

The increased workload for Kenneth Walker III, combined with his recent outperformance of Charbonnet, positions him as a top GPP play with a #1 tournament rank and a 27.02% optimal lineup percentage. Given his 15.37% ownership, he represents a highly coveted asset who is not overly chalky for his upside. The Seahawks are favored by 7.5 points, which bodes well for a run-heavy game script, further solidifying Walker’s red zone opportunities and overall touch volume against the Saints.

Honorable Mentions

• Christian McCaffrey ($8,200)
• Jordan Mason ($5,400)

WR Plays

Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6,500)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been on an absolute tear, topping 100 receiving yards in back-to-back games while commanding massive target volume (8/103 and 9/124). He’s quickly established himself as the clear top target for Sam Darnold, providing a high fantasy floor with his consistent involvement in the Seahawks’ passing game. This robust usage, combined with a solid 2.9x value projection at his $6500 salary, makes him a compelling play.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba draws significant volume, pacing the Seahawks in targets and receiving yards in consecutive weeks. His consistent production and role as the primary receiver solidify his floor, while his proven ability to exceed 100 yards offers substantial ceiling potential, even as he seeks his first touchdown of the season. His 17.1% optimal lineup percentage further highlights his strong potential to be a slate-winning piece.

Honorable Mentions

• Puka Nacua ($7,700)
• CeeDee Lamb ($8,000)

TE Plays

Trey McBride ($5,700)

Trey McBride continues to be a high-volume target, securing six receptions in each of his first two starts this season, including leading the team in receiving yards in Week 2 with 78 yards on seven targets. This consistent receiving volume establishes a secure floor, and his role as the leading receiver in a high-total game (45.5) against the 49ers provides ample opportunity for another strong performance. His projected 16.45 DK points and 2.89x value at a $5700 salary highlight his strong point-per-dollar potential.

McBride’s consistent target share and strong early-season performance make him a top recommendation, reflected in his #1 tournament rank and 17.75% optimal lineup percentage. Despite high ownership at 13.09%, his proven ability to command targets and contribute significantly to the passing game, even against a formidable opponent, offers a reliable floor with explosive ceiling potential for DFS lineups. His role as a “PPR monster” ensures he accumulates points through receptions, making him an appealing option for tournaments.

Honorable Mentions

• Brock Bowers ($6,000)
• Jake Ferguson ($4,000)

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